Search results for "Mortality data"
showing 8 items of 8 documents
Some findings on zero-inflated and hurdle Poisson models for disease mapping
2018
Zero excess in the study of geographically referenced mortality data sets has been the focus of considerable attention in the literature, with zero-inflation being the most common procedure to handle this lack of fit. Although hurdle models have also been used in disease mapping studies, their use is more rare. We show in this paper that models using particular treatments of zero excesses are often required for achieving appropriate fits in regular mortality studies since, otherwise, geographical units with low expected counts are oversmoothed. However, as also shown, an indiscriminate treatment of zero excess may be unnecessary and has a problematic implementation. In this regard, we find …
The predictive value of exercise testing for survival among 75-year-old men and women
2006
All 75-year-olds born in 1914 and living in the city of Jyväskylä, central Finland (n=388) were invited to study the predictive value of exercise test for mortality. Subjects who entered the laboratory (n=295) were to have a standard pre-test evaluation and perform a cycle ergometer exercise test. Subjects with complete background, exercise-test status and mortality data (n=282) were divided into three groups according to exercise-test status: a non-exercise test group (n=79), an exercise-test termination group (n=95), and an exercise-test completion group (n=108). Mortality was followed up for 9 years. The multivariate hazard ratio (HR) for death among the non-exercise test group compared …
Evaluation of the ERA5 reanalysis-based Universal Thermal Climate Index on mortality data in Europe
2021
Air temperature has been the most commonly used exposure metric in assessing relationships between thermal stress and mortality. Lack of the high-quality meteorological station data necessary to adequately characterize the thermal environment has been one of the main limitations for the use of more complex thermal indices. Global climate reanalyses may provide an ideal platform to overcome this limitation and define complex heat and cold stress conditions anywhere in the world. In this study, we explored the potential of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) based on ERA5 – the latest global climate reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) – as a h…
Horn growth rate and longevity: implications for natural and artificial selection in thinhorn sheep (Ovis dalli).
2007
We used horn measurements from natural and hunted mortalities of male thinhorn sheep Ovis dalli from Yukon Territory, Canada, to examine the relationship between rapid growth early in life and longevity. We found that rapid growth was associated with reduced longevity for sheep aged 5 years and older for both the hunted and natural mortality data sets. The negative relationship between growth rate and longevity in hunted sheep can at least partially be explained by morphologically biased hunting regulations. The same trend was evident from natural mortalities from populations that were not hunted or underwent very limited hunting, suggesting a naturally imposed mortality cost directly or in…
Do different models induce changes in mortality indicators? That is a key question for extending the Lee-Carter model
2021
[EN] The parametric model introduced by Lee and Carter in 1992 for modeling mortality rates in the USA was a seminal development in forecasting life expectancies and has been widely used since then. Different extensions of this model, using different hypotheses about the data, constraints on the parameters, and appropriate methods have led to improvements in the model's fit to historical data and the model's forecasting of the future. This paper's main objective is to evaluate if differences between models are reflected in different mortality indicators' forecasts. To this end, nine sets of indicator predictions were generated by crossing three models and three block-bootstrap samples with …
Temporal evolution of some mortality indicators: Application to Spanish data
2012
[EN] In Spain, as in other developed countries, significant changes in mortality patterns have occurred during the 20th and 21st centuries. One reflection of these changes is life expectancy, which has improved in this period, although the robustness of this indicator prevents these changes from being of the same order as those for the probability of death. If, moreover, we bear in mind that life expectancy offers no information as to whether this improvement is the same for different age groups, it is important and necessary to turn to other mortality indicators whose past and future evolution in Spain we are going to study. These indicators are applied to Spanish mortality data for the pe…
Epidemiology and Classification of Strokes
1991
Epidemiology concerns the occurrence and distribution of diseases in the population. By prevalence is meant the number of cases of the disease at a particular moment in a given group of persons, for example, in the entire population of a certain territory or in a clearly demarcated population group. Incidence refers to the number of new cases of the disease occurring in a population in a particular period of time. Figures on prevalence and incidence are meaningful only if the given disease is unequivocally defined. If the definition is too specific, many cases are not included (false-negative cases), whereas too broad a definition leads to many false-positive identifications (Table 3.1). Di…
Modelling and forecasting mortality in Spain
2008
[EN] Experience shows that static life tables overestimate death probabilities. As a consequence of this overestimation the premiums for annuities, pensions and life insurance are not what they actually should be, with negative effects for insurance companies or policy-holders. The reason for this overestimation is that static life tables, through being computed for a specific period of time, cannot take into account the decreasing mortality trend over time. Dynamic life tables overcome this problem by incorporating the influence of the calendar when graduating mortality. Recent papers on the topic look for the development of new methods to deal with this dynamism. Most methods used in dyna…